Monday, September 26, 2016

Alternate History: Western Australia seceeds in 1933 referendum

Country name: Dominion of Western Australia

Scenario: Both Britain and the Commonwealth of Australia accept the results of the 1933 Western Australia referendum and allow it to become an independent country in the Commonwealth of Nations.
Source: Wikipedia
Modified from: Johomaps

Demograpics: Australian and British population in 1933. Today 2.5 million people of multiple cultural backgrounds.

Economy: Relies on revenue from oil and mining exports, primarily iron ore. In 1933 was primarily agricultural, but most of the revenue came from aforementioned exports.

Relationship with Australia: Free Trade Agreements and citizenship agreements allow easy accessibility for Western Australians and Commonwealth Australians across the border. This means that New Zealand would been the second country to get an FTA with Australia and not the first due to this alternate history.

History:
Great Depression recovery takes longer than in our timeline due to the significantly smaller population and budget.

During World War 2 Western Australia, on the side of the allies, is a more attractive target for Japan due to the smaller capacity to fight back. WA suffers more under Japanese bombings with more deaths, however the Japanese are eventually fended off with the support of Commonwealth Australia and the United States. WA soldiers played a significant role in defending Portuguese Timor against Japanese invasions. WA also signs the peace treaty with Japan alongside America, Britain, Australia and New Zealand. WA becomes involved in most regional events and organisations that Commonwealth Australia does. With less people in WA during the war, support for Britain was strained more due to WA's vulnerability being higher than the Commonwealth's. It is likely total independence from Britain could have been achieved had the country not been made up of mostly British and Australians people.

Like Australia, WA would send troops to Vietnam and Korea, contributing to the number of soldiers sent by Australia and New Zealand in our timeline.

The mining boom felt in our timeline is not experienced to such a large extent in this timeline due to there being less land, but there is still a boom. Commonwealth Australia feels a smaller boom than in our timeline, but it is still larger than that experienced by WA. This is due to the large amount of iron ore exported from Australia being from WA at almost 50%. So China still buys significant amounts of iron ore in both countries.

WA's dependence on oil revenue would be hugely effected by the 1970s oil crisis, where the Arab states in the Middle East raised their prices massively. WA would be hit harder than Commonwealth Australia due to the former selling a smaller amount of oil compared to the latter because of smaller territory.

The end of the mining boom and subsequent recession in our timeline would also hit WA harder due to a smaller population and budget, meaning higher unemployment and higher budget deficits than Commonwealth Australia. WA may try to be readmitted to the federation, but due to economic circumstances would be denied.

The Global Financial Crisis would hit WA far harder than Commonwealth Australia due to lacking the sufficient banking regulations that Commonwealth Australia introduced in the 1980s.

Overall, because WA has a smaller population and GDP than Commonwealth Australia, it would be hit harder in multinational economic crises. The effects of economic problems may provoke WA to try and rejoin the federation, but the burden would be off-putting for the Commonwealth. It may even lead to border closures to prevent Western Australians leaving the country for Commonwealth Australia. Nevertheless it would be more of a tourist attraction for Commonwealth Australians due to the political history between both countries.

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